Management Report
3. Sales and Earnings Forecast
The following forecasts for 2011 are based on the business performance described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities. The sales and earnings forecast for 2012 is given in
chapter 11.4 of the Annual Report 2010.
Bayer Group
We confirm the full-year sales and earnings forecast that we raised in April.
For 2011 we continue to target a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales increase of between 5% and 7%. This corresponds to Group sales of between €36 billion and €37 billion. This guidance is based on the exchange rates prevailing at the end of the second quarter of 2011.
We still plan to increase EBITDA before special items to more than €7.5 billion. As before, core earnings per share (calculated as explained in
Chapter 7) are expected to improve by about 15%. We anticipate that the special charges included in EBITDA for ongoing restructuring programs will remain unchanged at €0.5 billion.
HealthCare
We confirm our outlook for 2011.
In 2011 HealthCare still plans to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to achieve a small improvement in EBITDA before special items.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we continue to believe that sales will not yet resume growing with the market in 2011. We still plan to increase sales by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects and to raise the EBITDA margin before special items.
In the Consumer Health segment, we continue to anticipate above-market growth in sales after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. As before, we expect sales and EBITDA before special items to increase by mid-single-digit percentages.
CropScience
The CropScience business continues to trend positively. As previously communicated, we aim to improve sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis in 2011. We plan to expand EBITDA before special items by about 20% compared to the weak prior year – or more if the season progresses well in the second half of 2011.
MaterialScience
At MaterialScience we still expect to raise sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. It remains our aim to grow EBITDA before special items at a higher rate than sales. However, we consider this objective to be increasingly ambitious.
We anticipate that sales and EBITDA before special items in the third quarter of 2011 will be in line with the prior-year level.